Polling Nostradamus Nate Silver says others are lying about election forecasts

By Stephen M. Lepore For Dailymail.Com 22:54 31 Oct 2024, updated 00:15 01 Nov 2024

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Nate Silver went into a tirade about how pollsters are lying to people about their results just days before the election.

Silver, the founder of poll analytics site FiveThirtyEight, was speaking on his podcast when he was asked what his models tell him will happen next Tuesday.

While he says it's a 55% chance Donald Trump wins vs. 45% for Kamala Harris, what pollsters have been doing in the run-up to the election has left him unsettled.

He claims that many surveys, including Emerson College, are doing something called 'herding' - or using existence poll results to impact new polls - to keep producing close polls with one candidate or the other up by one point

'In fact, I kind of trust pollsters less, they all, every time a pollster [says] 'Oh, every state is is just +1, every single state's a tie,' No! You're f***ing herding! You're cheating! You're cheating!'

Silver argues the polling could favor one candidate or the other but that ultimately the problem is 'Information that has no potential to be surprising has no value.'

'Your numbers aren't all going to come out at exactly 1-point leads when you're sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying! You're putting your f***ing finger on the scale!'

He slammed Emerson but also 'all these GOP-leaning firms' showing Trump leading by small margins to basically project that 'we're not going out too far on a limb.'

He says every pollster except for the New York Times is 'just f***ing punting on this election for the most part'

'If a pollster never publishes any numbers that surprises you, then it has no value,' he concluded.

However, he did warn that all of the close polls could simply be correct and the race is more or less a coin toss.

'But look, all seven swing states are still polling within it looks like a point and a half here. It doesn't take a genius to know that if every swing state is a tie, that the overall forecast is a tie.'

Trump has overtaken Harris in the final DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners national poll before Election Day, with the former president holding a three-point lead over the vice president.

Both candidates have shored up their bases, but Trump has done better at picking up support from independents and undecided voters in the final push, according to the data.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters, which has margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, shows that Trump is trending up, with the support of 49 percent to Harris' 46 percent.

The race is still close. Yet, with five days to go, the numbers mean Trump is currently on course to become the first Republican candidate since George W. Bush in 2004 to win the popular vote.

The vice president held a one-point lead when the poll was last conducted in September.

She enjoyed a two-month honeymoon after President Joe Biden announced he was ending his reelection campaign. Her poll numbers and fundraising surged amid a wave of enthusiasm.

But since then the race has tightened to become one of the closest in history.

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